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THE MONEY IDEA💡
3 Strong Buys, 2 Clear Sells
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Markets are recalibrating after Powell’s cautious tone and Nvidia’s record-breaking five trillion dollar valuation reminded investors how much future growth is already priced in. Amid the crosscurrents, Morningstar analysts highlight a few names trading at real discounts and others that have simply run too far. In this week’s edition, we break down 3 strong buys still offering upside and 2 clear sells where risk now outweighs reward.
Let’s dive in.
We’re trying to avoid problems like these.
THE MONEY IDEA💡
3 Strong Buys
Bottom Line: An AI-enabled ads-and-cloud flywheel with rising backlog and a fresh fair value upgrade.
Cloud Inflection: Google Cloud’s backlog acceleration points to a stronger 2026 revenue ramp and improved operating leverage.
Valuation Gap: Shares trade at a meaningful discount after fair value increased to $340, leaving room for multiple expansion.
Ads Resilience: AI-enhanced search and retail ads lift engagement and monetization without sacrificing user experience.
Balance Sheet Strength: Net cash, disciplined capex, and buybacks support durable per-share growth through cycles.
Moat Durability: Network effects, data scale, and switching costs underpin a wide economic moat and medium uncertainty rating.
Do This Next: Accumulate on pullbacks and let Cloud backlog conversion and AI-assisted ad growth narrow the discount.
Bottom Line: A sticky enterprise suite where Agentforce and efficiency targets could raise the fair value path.
Sticky Core: Deep switching costs across Sales, Service, and Data Cloud anchor high renewal rates and expansion.
AI Monetization: Agentforce 360 and GenAI assistants drive seat upgrades and usage-based add-ons over time.
Target Ambition: Management’s 2030 revenue and Rule-of-50 framework imply upside versus current base-case modeling.
Operating Discipline: Mix shift to higher-margin clouds and continued cost controls support margin improvements.
Attractive Entry: Stock sits below fair value with a wide moat and higher uncertainty appropriately discounted.
Do This Next: Start or add in tiers ahead of AI adoption and operating margin traction.
Bottom Line: A diversified healthcare REIT riding occupancy gains and refinancing benefits as rates ease.
Demographic Demand: Aging population and improving senior-housing fundamentals support multi-year NOI growth.
Accretive Deals: Recent senior housing acquisitions at 7% cap rates look value-add to FFO over time.
Operational Momentum: Better-than-expected results and guidance lift confidence in 2025 cash flow.
Rate Sensitivity: Lower short and long rates over the next two years should reduce interest burden and boost earnings.
Risk Mix: Exposure tilts toward defensive care settings versus challenged urban offices, improving visibility.
Do This Next: Accumulate on dips and reinvest dividends while occupancy and refinancing tailwinds compound.
THE MONEY IDEA💡
2 Clear Sells
Bottom Line: Premium pricing gains look over-extrapolated, leaving limited margin for error.
Lackluster Setup: Even after a pullback, the stock remains overvalued against intrinsic estimates.
Mean Reversion: Rate increases normalize over time as competition and loss trends stabilize.
Growth Reality: Street may be baking in too much volume and margin persistence versus long-term averages.
Allocation Choice: Better risk-adjusted returns likely in discounted wide-moat tech or REITs with easing-rate leverage.
Downside Skew: Any miss on growth or combined ratios could drive a sharper multiple reset.
Do This Next: Reduce exposure and reallocate to more cost-effective opportunities.
Bottom Line: A mature marketplace with modest growth prospects that remains well above fair value.
Valuation Premium: Shares sit roughly 30% over fair value despite the recent drop.
Growth Ceiling: Five-year top-line CAGR assumptions already exceed recent reality, limiting upside surprises.
Margin Constraints: Mix and competition cap operating leverage versus earlier expansion cycles.
Diminished Compounding: Buybacks help EPS optics but don’t fix muted GMV growth.
Better Fish: Numerous wide-moat compounders trade at discounts with clearer multi-year runways.
Do This Next: Exit on strength and rotate into higher-quality discounted names.
The real reason to sell your eBay stock.
ACTION PLAN✅
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Quick Money: Fund new buys by rotating proceeds from pricey companies like Progressive and eBay.
$GOOGL ( ▼ 2.03% ) — Add in tiers and let Cloud backlog conversion and AI-assisted ads narrow the discount.
$CRM ( ▼ 0.21% ) — Initiate or top up before 2025 proof points on Agentforce monetization and operating margin.
$VTR ( ▼ 0.33% ) — Accumulate on rate-driven dips and reinvest dividends as senior housing momentum builds.
$PGR ( ▲ 2.88% ) / $EBAY ( ▲ 2.42% ) — Use strength to reduce exposure and redeploy into higher-quality, discounted compounders.
If you’re looking for more smart, actionable ideas beyond this week’s picks, we’ve gathered a short list of other high-quality newsletters worth your time.
See our curated picks here — practical insights on money, work, and life from trusted sources.
QUOTE CORNER📄
Quote of The Week
-Suze Orman
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