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Tariffs Trigger Recession Odds
Kenny
April 02, 2025
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💰Tariffs Trigger Recession Odds
Welcome to Money Masters!
Markets are on edge as newly announced reciprocal tariffs spark fresh fears of a global economic slowdown. With inflation risks rising and investor confidence slipping, Wall Street is bracing for the potential fallout. As recession odds climb, analysts warn that the coming months could test both portfolios and policymakers.
Let’s go.
BIG IDEA 1💡
Tariffs and Market Uncertainty
Markets Brace for Tariff Impact
S&P Resilience: The S&P 500 closed modestly higher (0.4%), despite ending a rocky quarter down nearly 5%, as markets absorbed tariff uncertainties.
NASDAQ Rebound: NASDAQ rose 0.9%, buoyed by tech optimism, even as it ended Q1 with losses exceeding 10%.
Dow Uncertainty: The Dow Jones ended flat, reflecting continued investor caution amid looming trade tensions.
Tariff Announcement Looms
Immediate Impact: Trump’s reciprocal tariffs take effect immediately on April 2, targeting broad product categories globally.
Auto Tariff Shock: A 25% tariff on imported cars and auto parts starts April 3, stoking inflation concerns.
Wall Street on Edge: Economists worry the tariffs could trigger stagflation, combining low growth with rising inflation.
Economic Warning Signs
Job Openings Fall: February’s job openings dipped to 7.57 million, signaling weakening labor demand.
Manufacturing Slump: ISM Manufacturing Index hit a four-month low at 49.0, entering contraction territory.
Goldman’s Recession Call: Goldman Sachs increased recession probability to 35%, citing rising tariffs as a primary threat.
BIG IDEA 2💡
Emerging Investment Trends
Crypto and Tesla: Mixed Fortunes
Bitcoin Stabilizes: Bitcoin recovered to around $85,000 after losing 11% in Q1, gaining investor attention as tariffs approach.
Tesla’s Rough Ride: Tesla rose 3% ahead of Q1 data, but Wells Fargo warns delivery slowdowns and price cuts threaten future earnings.
Trump’s Crypto Bet: A Trump family company took a 20% stake in Bitcoin miner American Bitcoin, showing continued institutional crypto acceptance.
Explore Margentum, the digital silver to Bitcoin’s digital gold—by the Money Masters Team!
Gold and Corporate Moves Make Waves
Gold Rush: Gold surged past $3,100 per ounce, up nearly 19% year-to-date as tariff concerns boost safe-haven demand.
ETF Surge: Gold ETFs saw their strongest inflows since early 2022, underscoring heightened market uncertainty.
PVH’s Strong Quarter: PVH Corp jumped 18% on impressive quarterly results driven by Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger.
Newsmax Frenzy & J&J Stumble: Newsmax soared 183%, becoming the latest meme-stock sensation, while Johnson & Johnson sank 7.6% following a major legal setback.
Strategic Portfolio Adjustments
Yardeni’s Revised View: Ed Yardeni lowers S&P 500 earnings forecast amid rising stagflation risks, yet maintains a long-term optimistic outlook with a target of 6,000 for 2025.
Defensive Shift: Analysts increasingly recommend defensive positions, favoring gold, bonds, and European equities over U.S. stocks amid tariff uncertainty.
Crypto’s Resilience: Despite volatility, continued institutional crypto adoption suggests long-term confidence in digital assets as portfolio hedges.
Need our expert tips? Grab our Money Mastery guides today.
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INFLATION REPORT💸
Today’s Inflation Rate: 2.61% (rising 🙃)
You are now closer to money mastery!🎉
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