Gold Hits More Records, Crypto Retreats

Volatile Close – The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% after an afternoon reversal, while the Nasdaq fell 0.8% and the Dow lost 0.8%, snapping a three-session win streak as traders cashed out cyclical gains.

Tariff Tension – Trump’s claim that China’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans was an “economically hostile act” revived fears of tit-for-tat measures and global supply disruptions.

Yield Drop – Treasury yields tumbled as traders piled into bonds, betting the Fed will have to accelerate rate cuts to counter growth risks.

Gold Records – Gold hit an all-time high near $4,190 per ounce, extending its 2025 rally beyond 50% as central banks and institutions boost long-term allocations.

Silver Strength – Silver jumped alongside gold, fueled by safe-haven demand and industrial optimism from EV battery and AI-hardware growth.

Fiat Fatigue – Paul Tudor Jones said the “only way to reduce debt-to-GDP is with easier money,” calling the current cycle “a global fiat debasement phase.”

QT Nearing End – Powell said the Fed is “approaching” the point where balance-sheet runoff should stop, acknowledging emerging liquidity strains in short-term funding markets.

Crisis Memory – He referenced the 2019 repo-market turmoil as a cautionary tale, signaling a readiness to prevent another liquidity crunch as reserves tighten.

Cut Probability – Traders now price a near-certainty of a 25-basis-point cut at the October 28–29 meeting, expecting Powell to preempt tariff fallout and labor weakness.

Bitcoin Slide – Bitcoin fell 4% to $110,770, reversing from last week’s $126,000 peak as Trump’s tariffs triggered a $500B crypto market wipeout.

Leverage Flush – Citi said forced liquidations of leveraged longs caused a cascading selloff, exposing crypto’s growing correlation with equities during risk-off episodes.

ETF Support – Despite the crash, ETF inflows remain resilient, suggesting a steadier investor base is quietly accumulating amid panic-driven volatility.

FOMO Surge – Bank of America’s October survey showed global managers the most bullish on equities since early 2023, with cash levels falling to 3.8%.

Valuation Strain – Sixty percent of respondents now say stocks are overvalued, while over half view AI assets as an emerging bubble that could burst on weak earnings.

JPMorgan Pulse – JPMorgan’s profit climbed 21% on revived dealmaking and strong trading revenue, but Dimon warned of “softening jobs” and sticky inflation clouding visibility.

Wells Fargo Strength – Wells posted solid growth across consumer and commercial lines, with EPS of $1.66 topping estimates and shares jumping over 7%.

Credit Watch – Investors await BofA and Morgan Stanley reports for signals on credit costs, deposit flows, and the health of consumer spending into year-end.

Bank Play – Build exposure to Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▼ 2.85% ) as loan growth and expense control drive stronger returns on equity.

Tech Edge – Accumulate AMD $AMD ( ▼ 1.69% ) after Oracle’s 50,000-chip order solidified its AI roadmap through 2027.

Defensive Core – Keep Johnson & Johnson $JNJ ( ▲ 0.5% ) as a dividend anchor and inflation-resistant core holding.

Crypto Patience – Treat Bitcoin’s slide near $110K as a chance to scale in slowly while speculative leverage clears.

Safe-Haven Hedge – Maintain gold and silver exposure as Powell’s pivot, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical strain fuel a new metals supercycle.