Jackson Hole Looms

Mixed Close – The Dow gained just 10 points after touching a record, while the S&P 500 fell 37 points and the Nasdaq dropped 315 points.

NVIDIA Pressure – NVDA slid 3.5% as traders took profits before its earnings next week, pulling other AI-driven names lower with it.

Faded Momentum – The market reversed quickly, showing investors remain reluctant to chase valuations at current levels before major updates.

Shift in Leadership – Investors moved into small-caps, cyclicals, and value stocks while large-cap growth lagged, a rare pattern last seen in 2000 before the dotcom bust.

Cautionary Signal – Analysts warn that such rotations often appear late in bull cycles, raising questions about whether momentum is peaking.

AI Bubble Talk – OpenAI’s Sam Altman added fuel to concerns by warning that AI-driven speculation may already be outpacing fundamentals.

Cut Expectations – Futures imply an 83% chance of a September rate cut, but markets remain divided on the Fed’s timing and magnitude.

Balanced Messaging – Deutsche Bank expects Powell to stress economic issues while keeping a hawkish tone on inflation to manage expectations.

Policy Theme – The symposium’s focus on demographics, jobs, and productivity could highlight long-term shifts shaping Fed policy beyond 2025.

Bitcoin Stabilizes – BTC hovered near $115K after sliding below that level, with traders cautious ahead of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

Extended Bull Case – Bernstein now projects BTC at $200K within 6–12 months, extending the crypto cycle into 2027 under supportive policy.

Altcoin Divergence – ETH slipped 1% to $4,312, SOL fell 0.6%, while DOGE declined 1.5%, underscoring fading risk appetite in smaller tokens.

Crude Weakness – Brent crude dropped 1% to $65.92 as speculation of Ukraine peace talks reduced risk premiums on supply disruptions.

Gold Momentum – Gold has gained 28% YTD, with UBS forecasting $3,500 by December on strong central bank buying and de-dollarization trends.

Robust Flows – ETF inflows into gold hit their strongest level since 2010, signaling renewed institutional appetite for defensive assets like GLD.

Positive Surprise – Shares of HD rose 3% after results topped estimates, as analysts expected weaker spending on large-ticket items.

Busy Week Ahead – Reports from WMT, TGT, and LOW will provide a deeper read on consumer strength heading into the fall.

Fed Angle – A dovish Powell could lift bonds and rate-sensitive stocks; $SHY ( ▼ 0.07% ) and utilities are good watchlists.

Retail Earnings – $HD ( ▼ 0.9% ) beat hints $LOW ( ▼ 1.57% ), $WMT ( ▼ 0.26% ), and $TGT ( ▼ 1.99% ) may also surprise to the upside.

Gold Hedge – With UBS eyeing $3,500, gold ETFs like $GLD ( ▲ 0.04% ) remain attractive for stability and upside.

Crypto Setup – Bitcoin holding near $115K offers “buy-the-dip” potential if the rally extends toward $200K.

Rotation Play – Small-caps are leading on earnings; $IWM ( ▼ 0.49% ) is positioned to benefit from this shift.