S&P 500 Slips After Record High

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💰S&P 500 Slips After Record High

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The S&P 500 touched a new intraday peak on Tuesday but reversed course by the close as earnings misses and trade uncertainty pulled markets lower. Investors are growing more cautious with the Federal Reserve meeting underway and key labor data set to drop later this week. With momentum slowing and macro risks stacking up, the rally is starting to show cracks at the top.

Let’s go.

BIG IDEA 1💡
Momentum Meets Resistance

Rally Stalls at the Top

• Intraday Peak Fades: The S&P 500 hit 6,409 before slipping 0.3%, as afternoon selling pressure reversed early gains.

• Trade Lacks Clarity: A U.S.-EU deal lifted optimism briefly, but unresolved China talks and tariff risks are keeping traders on edge.

• Cautious Tone Takes Hold: Investors are increasingly reluctant to chase highs ahead of the Fed’s decision and a wave of labor market data.

Earnings Season Hits a Critical Stretch

• Mega-Caps in the Spotlight: Meta and Microsoft report Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon Thursday, all carrying the weight of the market’s high expectations.

• Consumer Weakness Emerges: Companies like Whirlpool and PayPal flagged softer demand, suggesting that discretionary spending may be under pressure.

• Logistics and Healthcare Miss: UPS and UnitedHealth disappointed investors, highlighting how trade volatility and elevated costs are weighing on key service sectors.

Fed Holds Fire as Debate Builds

• Rate Pause Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates between 4.25% and 4.5% at Wednesday’s meeting, but forward guidance remains key.

• Mixed Views Internally: Powell maintains a wait-and-see stance, but other Fed officials are increasingly vocal about the need for easing.

• Labor Market in Focus: The week’s ADP, JOLTS, and Friday’s jobs report may help determine whether a policy shift is warranted this fall.

BIG IDEA 2💡
Quiet Shifts Below the Surface

Crypto Enters New Chapter

• Legislation Drives Attention: The GENIUS Act brought new regulatory clarity to crypto, improving the investment case for digital asset equities.

• ETFs Gain Popularity: Vehicles like BITQ and DAPP offer diversified exposure to exchanges, miners, and asset managers in a high-volatility sector.

• Bitcoin Holds Firm: BTC remained near $119,000 while altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin posted steeper losses amid Fed-related uncertainty.

Mixed Signals Across Sectors

• Novo Slides on Weaker Outlook: Shares of Novo Nordisk plunged after the company slashed its 2025 forecast, citing weaker demand for key obesity and diabetes drugs.

• Margins Face Global Pressures: Across sectors, firms are warning that cost pressures, uneven demand, and currency volatility are compressing profitability.

Dollar Strength Reasserts Itself

• Greenback Pushes Higher: The U.S. dollar rallied on strong economic data and positive reaction to the U.S.-EU trade deal.

• Euro and Pound Drop Back: European currencies weakened as officials questioned the long-term cost of the trade pact on EU economies.

• Japan Holds Steady for Now: The yen traded quietly ahead of the BOJ’s Thursday decision, with inflation pressure and political instability creating uncertainty.

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